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Analyze Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic for the 72 hours before and after the ceasefire announcement. Compare AIS-visible counts and SAR-estimated totals. Did traffic actually increase when the ceasefire was declared? Is there satellite evidence of vessels repositioning, dark fleet movement changes, or IRGC corridor activity shifting? Cross-reference with Brent crude price movement during the same window. The question is simple: did the physical reality on the water match the diplomatic announcement or not? Vet each claim from multiple trusted sources and apply deep GIS analysis for evidence-based findings. Strictly cover the last 72 hours as of April 9, 2026. Every insight must be backed by multiple verified sources so no one can challenge them. Apply rigorous geospatial methodology throughout.
script.py
ubuntu@sandbox:~$python script.py
Report written: 56,246 characters, ~6,699 wordsSaved to /app/output/executive_summary.mdkey_stats.json savedkey_events.json saved
Strait of Hormuz: Physical Reality vs. Diplomatic Fiction
Key Events
12 insights
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Key Metrics
AIS vessel transits Apr 6 (pre-ceasefire)11 vessels/day | Source: Windward AI Apr 6 daily report
AIS vessel transits Apr 7 (pre-ceasefire)11 vessels/day | Source: Windward AI Apr 7 daily report
AIS vessel transits Apr 8 (ceasefire day)5 vessels/day | Source: Windward AI Apr 8 daily report
AIS vessel transits Apr 9 (post-ceasefire)3 vessels/day (partial) | Source: Bloomberg, Times of Israel Apr 9
Satellite Images
8 satellite imagess available
AIS vessel traffic count analysis for the Strait of Hormuz 72-hour ceasefire window (April 6–9, 2026). Shows daily transit counts pre vs post ceasefire, oil tanker vs bulk/cargo breakdown, and comparison to the 138/day baseline. Includes % decline from normal and % change pre/post ceasefire annotation.
Brent crude oil price analysis (April 6–9, 2026) with daily OHLC bars, ceasefire announcement annotation on April 8, war premium collapse visualization, and partial recovery on April 9. Dual-axis overlay of vessel traffic counts to highlight market vs physical divergence.
7-panel master divergence dashboard summarizing the Strait of Hormuz ceasefire analysis window (April 6–9, 2026). Panels include: vessel counts pre/post ceasefire, Brent crude price with ceasefire marker, dark fleet percentage, tanker backlog size, mine threat timeline, normalized market vs physical overlay (divergence gap index: 40.9 points), and key structural barriers to reopening.
Annotated GIS map of the Strait of Hormuz (April 6–9, 2026) showing IMO TSS lanes, IRGC Larak Corridor (northern and southern branches), mine danger zones, key port locations (Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, Larak Island, Fujairah, Musandam), westbound/eastbound tanker backlog zones (244 and 156 vessels respectively), and corridor activity shifts pre/post ceasefire. Strait width annotated at 33 nautical miles.
6-panel IRGC corridor activity and shadow/ghost fleet analysis for the Strait of Hormuz (April 6–9, 2026). Includes: ghost fleet composition (73–79% of total traffic), corridor usage split (50% northern / 50% southern on April 9), tanker backlog quantification (400 total), Iranian export volume decline (76% in March, ~38M barrels via Kharg Island), mine count (12), GNSS-affected vessels (1,650), and AIS spoofing incidents.
SAR vs AIS discrepancy analysis for the Strait of Hormuz (April 6–9, 2026). Compares AIS-visible vessel counts against SAR-estimated dark fleet totals using Lloyd's List 34.4% dark transit ratio. Charts the daily gap between AIS and SAR-corrected numbers, documents the VLCC Kharg Island event, and highlights the EOPL ghost fleet count (76 dark transits per Lloyd's List).
Sentinel-1 SAR VV-polarization vessel detection composite over the Strait of Hormuz for April 6–9, 2026. Shows vessel density heatmap derived from bright-target extraction, with anomalous cluster identification relative to IMO TSS lanes and the IRGC Larak Corridor. Generated from Sentinel-1 GRD imagery via Google Earth Engine.
VIIRS/NPP nighttime lights comparison for Strait of Hormuz port areas (January vs February 2026 baseline, latest available data). Shows mean radiance by port: Bandar Abbas (6.30), Fujairah (6.84), Jebel Ali (25.81). Mean radiance change: +2.52%; standard deviation change: −52.0%. Notes limitation that VIIRS data only extends through February 2026, predating the full conflict period.
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